Online Bettors Give Long Odds for McCain Win
Futures traders and sports books are setting overwhelming odds that Barak Obama, the Illinois Democrat will win the United States presidency on November 4, 2008.
Oddsmaker.com – Obama Win @ 1-10 Odds
OddsMaker.com puts the odds of an Obama win at 1-10, meaning a bettor must risk $10 to win one more. John McCain, meanwhile, is an 11-2 shot, so a dollar posted on him would pay out an additional $5.50. The site now pays out less for a bet on Obama winning in a 370-plus electoral landslide than it does for a McCain victory of any margin.
Sportsbook.com Gives McCain 4 to 1 Odds
Other books give the Arizona senator more favorable odds — Sportsbook.com has McCain at 4-to-1 — but across the board a bet for the Republican now pays off more than it has at any point during the general election, as bettors have soured on his prospects.
Paddy Power, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, no longer gives McCain any chance at all, having called the election for Obama on Oct. 15 and paid out over a million pounds on bets for the Democrat, whose line had moved from 50-1 in May of 2005 to 1-9 when the book closed.
The wide spread between books — whose odds aren’t intended to be predictive, but to split the action such that the house comes out ahead no matter who wins — stems from the relatively small size of the betting pool, which means they may not accurately represent expectations among the non-betting public.
Futures markets, in which buyers and sellers negotiate a price for a contract that pays off if a postulated event in fact occurs, are also down on McCain. An option that pays $1 should McCain win now sells for just 14 cents at Dublin-based futures market Intrade and 13 cents on the Iowa Electronic Market. Both prices are record lows.
Other Bookmakers, Like Superbook.com, Also Down on McCain
Shortly after the Republican National Convention, McCain was a slight favorite in several markets, with a $1 option going for 54 cents on Intrade, and Ladbrokes giving the Republican 5-4 odds.
While polls show a snapshot in time of who voters want to win, betting lines and futures trades show who bettors think will win. The good news for McCain is that the gamblers have not always been right.
Prior to the New Hampshire primary, Superbook.com listed Obama as a prohibitive 1-33 shot to win, but he ended up losing that contest to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
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